ZF-Centre for Sustainability Research | Zeppelin Universität (2024)

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  Professorin Florentina Paraschiv organisierte einen Doktoranden-Workshop im Bereich Sustainable Finance

  der die Bemühungen von Wissenschaftlern der Zeppelin Universität und der Norwegischen Universität für Wissenschaft und Technologie vereint. Die Veranstaltung findet am ...

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  Florian Horky erhielt den Best Paper Award auf der ECOS 2024 Konferenz Mendel Universität, Brünn 21.-22.3.2024 mit folgender Publikation:

  "Finanzielle Entwicklung und Einführung erneuerbarer Energien in den EU- und ASEAN-Ländern" Zeitschrift: Erschienen in Energy Economics – Sonderausgabe zur Geldpolitik

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  Seminar talk at the Webster University of Vienna

  Prof. Dr. Florentina Paraschiv gives a seminar talk at the Webster University of Vienna at November, 21.Topic: Sustainable Finance Trends -- The ESGs Puzzle

Christoph Halser, Florentina Paraschiv, Marianna Russo: Oil-Gas Price Relationships on Three Continents: Disruptions and Equilibria

Abstract

In this paper, we revisit traditional gas pricing formulas and show the ever-changing relationships between natural gas and oil prices in Europe, the United States, and Japan between 2009 and 2021. The results suggest a stronger oil-gas link for all investigated markets after 2019, significantly impacted by fundamental supply and demand factors. However, the strength of the equilibria link differs across markets due to different price formation processes under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. For Japanese LNG prices, our results imply an enduring impact of oil-price indexation with a tight link to monthly crude prices. TTF and monthly oil prices enter a temporary equilibrium in times of high market volatility, whereby the long-term equilibrium dissipates. Despite the absence of oil indexation in the North American market, we find evidence of re-coupling of oil and gas prices given the demand shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings are relevant to policy makers to assess market inefficiencies caused by the European gas crisis.

Christoph Halser, Florentina Paraschiv: Pathways to Overcoming Natural Gas Dependency on Russia – The German Case

Abstract

The war in Ukraine hassensitized German policy makers towards the negative economic impact of acurtailment of natural gas flows from Russia. Given its large importdependency, Germany has implemented regulatory measures for mitigating apossible gas shortage and is seeking to diversify from pipeline imports ofliquefied natural gas (LNG). In this context, we provide a comprehensive reviewof the natural gas crisis in Europe and place it in the context of the peculiarrole of natural gas in Germany. We critically discuss the economic impact of anembargo, and assess demand and supply factors capable of mitigating a supplyshortage. We derive a short-term import substitution potential of 13 bcm,assuming timely installation of Floating Storage and Regasification Units(FSRUs). We discuss the potential for demand reductions in the power sector, inindustry consumption, and in households, and estimate a combined maximum of24.1 bcm. Under decreased industrial demand, the most optimistic scenarioindicates an import gap of about 9 bcm for a one-year perspective. Given ourfindings, we advocate for the delayed phasing out of coal and nuclear power,the accelerated deployment of renewable energy, and caution in the initialexecution of storage quotas and restrictions to industrial consumers.

Wei Li, Florentina Paraschiv: Modelling the evolution of wind and solar power infeed forecasts

Abstract

With the increasing integration of wind and photovoltaic powerin the whole European power system,there is a longing for detecting how to trade energy in the ever-changingintraday market from electric power industries.Intraday trading becomes even more relevant in the wake of the EuropeanCross-Border Intraday (XBID) project, which aims at integrating electricitytrading across Europe. Therefore, optimal trading strategies to addressforecast fluctuations in renewables output are growingly required to bedesigned. In this study, we model, simulate and predict the evolution of windand PV infeed forecasting errors over eight days preceding the start of a givenquarter-hourly delivery period and updated in 15-min steps. We testcomparatively the performance of several stochastic and probabilistic models,and recommend their complementary use, depending on the frequency in whichforecast values are adjusted. Since ex-ante updated forecasting errors ofrenewables infeed are usually not available to researchers, simulations basedon our proposed models break the ground for further applications to intradaypricing and optimization.

Ignacio Mas Urquijo, Florentina Paraschiv: Cross-border Effects between the Spanish and French Electricity Markets: Asymmetric Dynamics and Benefits in the Light of European Market Integration

Abstract

We investigate cross-border dynamics between the Spanish and French electricity markets in the light of EU's market integration. The analysis is highly relevant given the isolation of the Iberian Peninsula from the rest of European markets and its unique electricity market design. Results show the shift in the merit order curve in each market. Electricity prices in Spain follow the dynamics of the French ones, fostered by Spain's import-dependence. Benefits of grid integration are asymmetric, with Spanish users taking advantage of the market integration with France. The substitution effect between domestic fuel-based units and imported green electricity allows Spain to further decarbonize its energy mix and increase the security of supply. The expansion of the cross-border grid until 2030 will be key for a successful phasing out of the remaining coal-based units. Our findings should be considered in support schemes for integration projects to align the incentives of participants.

Sustainable Finance Trends – Computational Challenges

To optimize their strategies, investors and creditors integrate EGS scores to consider social and environmental factors in their decision making. However, the depiction of the different ESG dimensions is characterized by distinct degrees of complexity. Consequently, coherent industry standards for ESG disclosure are subject to future research. ESG-score providers rely heavily on voluntary disclosures by firms and on subjective methodologies to select, examine, and weigh individual ESG indicators. Consequently, ESG-scores of individual firms show large heterogeneity across rating agencies (Berg et al. 2023).

In this project, we provide solutions to the current challenges of corporations to implement the EU taxonomy steps stemming from the heterogeneity of ESG variables reported by companies even in the same field of activity, which distorts a direct comparison of their climate risks. We aim at identifying the optimal set of ESG variables to be reported by firms accordingly to size/sector of activity for improved ESG scoring and for optimal climate risks assessments. We further shed light on the banks` positioning in the sustainability picture. Empirical banking literature shows that banks continue to provide loans to “brown” industries and to profit from higher margins on such loans. Furthermore, domestic climate policy stringency decreases loan supply to domestic borrowers with high carbon risk while increasing loan supply to such borrowers abroad (Benincasa et al. 2023).

We derive two research questions: 1) Do banks with a larger proportion of brown assets communicate more positive ESG-related news? 2) Do banks with a larger proportion of brown assets have lower ESG scores?

Team

Ayari, Rayan

Akademischer Mitarbeiter

Lehrstuhl für Finance

Tel:	+49 7541 6009-1232
Raum:	Semi 1.27

E-Mail schreiben

Horky, Florian

Akademischer Mitarbeiter

Tel:	+49 7541 6009-1244
Raum:	Semi 0.22
florian.horky@zu.de

E-Mail schreibenCurriculum Vitae

Paraschiv, Florentina Prof Dr

Head of Institute for a Sustainable Economy | ISE
Direktorin ZF-Centre for Sustainability Research

Lehrstuhl für Finance

Tel:	+49 7541 6009 -1231
Raum:	Semi 1.13L

E-Mail schreibenCurriculum VitaeVeröffentlichungen

Peterfaj, Christina

Academic Administrative Support

Lehrstuhl für Allgemeine Medien- und Kommunikationswissenschaft

Stiftungslehrstuhl für Kommunikationswissenschaften mit dem Schwerpunkt Digitale Kommunikation

WÜRTH Chair of Cultural Production

Tel:	+49754160092203
Raum:	FAB 152

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Sarkisyan, Joël

Akademischer Mitarbeiter

Lehrstuhl für Finance

Tel:	+ 49 7541 6009-1235
Raum:	SMH Semi | 1.27

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